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September 2011 Posts
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Join Bo and Ryan for a look at the EV industry, some predictions, and some conclusions.
Don't just listen to the EVcast -- experience and be a part of it! Join us at 1:00pm Eastern, M-F, in our live video broadcast and chat along with us!
I own a Triac, and love it. I was not surprised to see Green Vehicles go out of business, but not this soon. I was also disappointed that they did not notify me that they were shut down. I found out three weeks after the announcement when I was just surfing the net.
I guess mine is now a collectable? HA HA
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Hey Guys... it was nice getting the email for this after so long.
I'll only argue with your point about "simple economics." This is your claim about why people aren't buying EVs. Because the other options are cheaper. And we all know that the other options are NOT cheaper... just that they appear cheaper since we get to socialize so much of the cost of doing things the old way. Let's price gasoline at what it costs us, and then revisit the economics of driving a car that you can run on sunshine. Take ALL incentives away so we truly have a level field, and see where the chips fall. I realize that is pie in the sky... but if all our decisions are made on the cost, then shouldn't we first determine what the costs are (beyond the obvious first-order costs of everything)?
Totally agree, Darell, but the average consumer cares more about saving money today than saving the planet for his grandkids. The average consumer also is more concerned how much money she will save today than saving money over 5-10 years. Through very costly advertising campaigns, we might be able to affect the public's opinion on this issue, but what we really need is a breakthrough in technology which allows auto makers to offer the public a solution that sells itself. Until that day, we are fighting an uphill battle.
I understand the disappointment in Nissan only having sold 7000 LEAF here in the USA, but the data still indicates that, for the moment, it is a supply problem not a demand problem.Firstly, only the LEAF is only selling in 6 states and there is no excess inventory.Secondly, if there was excess inventory, Nissan would surely open up sales to the other 44 states sooner. Still 88% of the states in this country don't even have the opportunity to buy (or reject) the Nissan LEAF at this point.So hold the negative assessment at least until people can buy a LEAF in all 50 states.Imagine you are running a company and sales are not what you expected. Do you say to yourself, that is too bad, or do you say, why don't we sell to everyone? I think that latter and they have not even taken that step yet.
Bo & Ryan,I'm glad you guys made another podcast. It's been too long! I realize your other endeavors and the need to feed your families takes precedent over the podcasting, but I've missed my one-stop shop for entertaining EV news. I wasn't able to join live and haven't seen the podcast show up on iTunes yet, but I'm eager to hear the update. I commute 20 miles each way everyday to and from work and would say I see on average 2-3 Teslas, 10-12 Leafs and maybe a Volt each day. As I see them speed past me in the commuter lane, I think about how nice it will be when I can afford one. (I commute from San Jose to Mountain View, CA)I hope to hear more about the new EVs and plug-ins due to hit the streets in the near future: Model S, Focus, Priuses (Prii?), etc. Exciting times. Keep up the great work and I hope the ebook biz is making you both rich so you can spend more time on EV cast!Cheers,Mike Jensen
The USA not only has a ridiculously tilted playing field when it comes to comparing the cost of oil to the cost of renewables -- with private military contractors sucking up hundreds of billions of tax dollars and nobody seeming to care -- but it also subsidizes the global oil market by keeping the flow going.Here's the solution:vote = (person*IQ/100)(1-(sociopath%/100))..at least that might level one particular playing field. I'm afraid the truth, irrelevant of morality, is that dumb people are given too much of a voice, and sociopathic smart people use those fools to steer an agenda solely for self-benefit. Oh, guys.. I miss your hope-coated cynicism treats a great deal! More!!
As has been said, the LEAF and Volt have only been available in limited areas, so I think it is too early to really know how well they will be received. As for numbers, it looks like Nissan has sold about 13,000 LEAFs worldwide as of the end of August (http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=2883&start=190). It has also been reported that GM produced 2395 Volts in August (http://jalopnik.com/5836562/nissan-leaf-outselling-chevy-volt-2-to-1-can-gm-catch-up).
That being said, I don't think EVs will be a significant percentage of car sales for quite a while. I hope that I am wrong though!
Steve
Hi John, I appreciate your dedication to the "cause", but there are a few problems. Firstly, Nissan is now selling the LEAF in 23 states -- 6 states was the launch market. Secondly, the number of states is irrelevant -- the number that counts is the potential market of each state. CA alone makes up more than 12% of the population (arguably more than half of the EV market). And lastly, there is NO formal indication from Nissan of a supply problem (if I am missing one, please correct me). Nissan said last November it planned to sell as many as 25,000 units in the U.S. during the model's first year. Through August, U.S. sales of the model totaled just 6,168.
Look, I want EVs to succeed as much as any solar-panel-pimpin, granola-eating, tree-hugger, but no more is it all speculation. We have data to help us asses the success/failure of this initiative and we can't ignore it.
Actually, that is not true. Nissan did just add the ability to order the LEAF in additional states today, but it has NOT been selling (delivering) any LEAFs in those additional states yet. And even the ordering is very limited. I am in a state that was just added, but when I tried to order a LEAF today, I found I could not because dealers were given an allotment and cannot place orders once that allotment is reached, and the dealers within 100 miles of here had all hit their allotment early within the first day. (That allotment was as low as 1 car for some / most of the dealers by the way.) So that tells me there is still somewhat of a supply issue.
With such small numbers though, it is difficult to draw more general conclusions.
Hi guys - good to hear from you again. Your analysis & the ensuing comments over EV sales stats are interesting. Here's my take: there's a mix of treehuggers who drive Hybrids and feel comfortable with this, a devoted electric car fan base in spite of limited range, and those who favor American pride with deeper pockets for Volt. I agree with Rick Sikes' (who organizes Santa Monica's AltCar Expo - where I'll be tomorrow) assessment that the future of green transportation will include multiple alternative fuels which also means Bio-diesel and CNG should be part of the future.
After selling ZENNs (which I adored) I don't even put 3-wheelers in the same category. Neither does the DMV (as they fall under the category: MOTORCYCLE??!) Okay, they're fun & unique for the truly bold & that's cool but I'm not at all surprised companies like ZENN (due to limited speed/range), ZAP, Aptera, Myers, Triac haven't done well. Yes, Randolph, you own a collectible! I applaud inspired vision however these are truly niche autos for car collectors. One of my ZAP customers bought his car to promote his business so the crazier looking, the better, is only good for a small few. Miles & Coda were not mentioned (or did I miss this?); that may be worth revisiting...
As for green car market share, the LOHAS (Lifestyles of Health & Sustainability for non-marketeers) consumers are only anywhere from 30-40% strong globally so that is definitely limiting plug-in sales compared to regular ICE cars or Hybrids. Until all the mechanics are properly trained on EV technology it would not be beneficial to flood the market; the other reason is push back from dealers to manufacturers (service depts. & hence the dealers will make much less money selling EVs since maintenance is practically nill & this is going to have an effect on our future auto industry in general.)
What will help push EVs over the hump to the masses is availability of greater range &/or the price (of gas, especially.) Someone from a new US upstart recently contacted me on LinkedIn, so here's a company that should interest you with 3 highway-capable models in production getting 200-mile range: http://www.electricmobilecars.com/ I'm very excited about this company & think they have a smart strategy going after Fleets first & also creating a model Learning Center. Their cars may not be as cool as Karma or Tesla but for 200-miles they're practical and priced right. Fleets will buy these cars and that's a positive for the environment.
p.s. Don't stay away so long!
Let's stick just with the state of CA for now, representing 12% of country, and by far, the most interested market in green technology. I would agree that there were a demand problem only IF customers in California wanted LEAFs but could not get them. If you have information that I don't, and this is an actual problem, then it would appear to be a supply issue. Even we grant that a) 100% of all LEAF sales were from CA (statistical impossibility), b) CA are representative of the rest of the US (certainly not in this case), and c) this was the ONLY state/market (which it wasn't), multiply those numbers by 8 (to get to 100% of country) and you STILL have a car that wouldn't even make the top 30 sales list.
Show me I am wrong. Show me statements from Nissan indicating a supply problem (recent ones). As you know John, I have been wrong before :)
Thanks for the update and new episode of EV cast.I think it's a little early to look at the sales numbers and draw big conclusions about EV's and plug-in vehicles. I think the fact that there have been almost 7000 LEAF's sold in the US is pretty amazing! This is a totally new vehicle and a major shift for consumers who are used to just going to the gas station to fill up their cars. We had to wait about a year for our LEAF but it was worth it. A great car.. and our monthly vehicle expenses (fuel costs, maintenance) are quite a bit lower now than they were before we got the LEAF.I think it will take a long time for EV's to be a big part of the vehicle mix. They will remain a small part of the sales numbers for quite a few years. People have to see them on the road to know they are the real deal and can work for them.I remember when the Prius first came out. The sales were VERY low and people thought the cars would not work and the batteries would die after a year or two. Finally, after about 10 years, are hybrids starting to be a larger part of the vehicle sales numbers. And hybrids are much more mainstream than EV's.From what I've read, Nissan is in this for the long haul and will have patience with the EV market. It will be years, but I think more and more consumers will see these electric cars and realize they are smart cars that can save them money in the long run. We won't see big numbers for many years, but as long as the sales continue to go up (even if it's a small increase) I would say that EV's are successful and that's exciting to me!-Peter
Whoa! Another EVCast- how did I miss this one? I usually check every few weeks, but this one slipped by me- good show, and welcome back- well, for a day, anyway;-)
Congrats on the Fiskar Karma test drive- hope it makes it under the tree for you at Christmas- THAT will be the next EVCast.
Hmm- supply or demand issue for the Volt and Leaf. I think a bit of both. Sadly, though Darrell is correct that EVs are a good value now if the true costs were put side-by-side, the public does not see that, as you mentioned above as well. Folks buy based on next week and next month- maybe next year- but not the long run, unfortunately. And let's face it- until the costs of EVs come down, they will not sell in great number. That said, I think the long range prospects are very good, for several reasons. The economy will eventually get better, though it may take several years. As more folks have EVs around the country, your average Joes will start to learn more about them, ride in them, maybe even test-drive them- this will make converts to EVs. I would also use the Prius parallel- it took a decade to get the cost down and for the car to take off. The same will occur with EVs in general. Autoblog-green had a good article on the longer term prospects of the Volt, but I think the principals will apply to the other EV makers:http://green.autoblog.com/2011/11/03/where-does-erev-technology-go-from-here/
ZENN and Eestor. ZENN has gone into almost-hibernation, having put all their eggs in the Eestor basket- which was, and still is, a good idea- more on that later. Eestor- do not count them out just yet. They are still working away in their office a few miles up the road here- and while I think they are having issues with being able to commercially produce the product, I am fairly confident in what they have in principal- that the science is real. Look to 2012 as the year, I think- but I also would not be surprised at 2013 or later- nor would I be too surprised if the commercial line kinks just cannot be overcome to make it viable- but I remain optimistic for them.
The independent EV makers are dropping like flies! Not a big surprise. I stated on more than one occassion that with the entry of the traditional auto-makers into the EV space, that their days were numbered, with the posible exceptions of Tesla and maybe Fiskar- more on THAT later. The other possible exception is ZENN. Yes, ZENN. Ian saw the issue long ago- the battery. And once the Big Boys re-entered the EV fray, he knew he would not be able to compete on that end. So ZENN did what they could- exit the NEV market, and wait on EESTOR. They may be in hibernation, but they are not bankrupt, and if Eestor delivers a product, ZENN will do very well indeed.
Fiskar and Tesla- who will be left standing. Tesla has the best chance, by far. They were first back into this space, and the Tesla name carries a lot of cache. They have the funding in place, via loans and their IPO, to get the Model S into the marketplace. They have partnered with Toyota and Daimler for the RAV4-EV and batteries, respectively. Their own SUV EV is on the drawing board. They are working down to an average consumer EV, but slowly. By far, Tesla has the best chance to succeed as an Automotive company- and they may not make it. Fiskar has some similar points as Tesla- but they are a step or three behind. They may make it in the long run, but theirs is a longshot.
Oh! And I liked the song at the end- almost missed it!
You quote Nissan on their sales numbers of >20k in 2011 for the LEAF but I think you missed the point that those numbers are for sales worldwide. At the Beginning of October, Nissan had sold over 15K worldwide and is well on their way to somwhere between 20-25K for the year end - world wide. US sales are on track for 10k, which is what I understand the target is. I know the current October lull in sales is due to the switchover to the 2012 model with its new features. These should be in customer hands soon. I think Nissan is hitting their targets admirably. If anyone had said that over 20k all electric OEM cars would be in customer hands by the end 2011, many would have (and did) just laugh at them. It's no time to sit back and congratulate ourselves but the revolution has begun.. spread the love guys. sidenote - i don't understand the Fisker purchase over a Model S. Model S is a beautiful car.
I also think that the main reason why people don't buy electric care is because they a have cheaper alternatives. I big category of people don't really care about the pollution they cause by using the regular cars, they don't see the benefits of owning an electric vehicle. I think that's what car manufacturers should do: sell benefits instead of the actual products. Speaking of electric cars, I've always wondered if the electric radiator fan as the one for gas cars. I'd appreciate any input on that, thanks!
